RCP.Com: All Polls (But Kos) Now Favor Scott Brown. *UPDATED – Coakley In Freefall!

Five of the last Six consecutive polls on Real Clear Politics.com now show a Brown lead. They range from 3 points (ARG) to 10 (PJM). Brown has taken the lead on INTRADE and Democratic (but respected) Polling firm PPP has him up 5. Rothenberg Political Reports has all but called it for Brown:

While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow’s race to fill the remainder of the late-Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat.

Brown is running extremely well with Independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone’s expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win. Move from Toss-Up to Lean Takeover.

Privately, White House insiders are saying they expect Coakley to lose, which is why Obama hustled out here yesterday. Internals suggested a BIG loss (10 points according to leaks out of both campaigns), so they had no chance but to come out if only to try and lower the margin. We are poised on edge of a political Tsunami – for the past week the water has been rushing out of the cove. The wave will come tomorrow.

UPDATE: Chris Matthews predicts Brown will win on “Morning Joe”. Look at how he slumps in his seat – somebody’s peed in his Wheaties today!

More on the bellweather poll that so disheartened Mr. Matthews:

“Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.

In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided. Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided. The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk’s bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006.”

An while we’re on the subject, more bad news from Pollster.com:

There has been a wider than normal range of polling results in the last two weeks from the Massachusetts Senate special election. This has been further clouded by a number of leaked internal polls and polling by relatively unknown and unproven pollsters, some partisan but others not. And most importantly, the rapid shifts in the race, reflected across all the polls, makes this a fast moving target. So let’s take a moment to consider what we could reasonably conclude based on the data.

But no matter how you slice the data, the only reasonable conclusion is that Scott Brown has moved from well behind to a lead somewhere between 4 and 11 points.

UPDATE #2:  POLITICO: Coakley In Freefall!

An Insider Advantage Poll posted an hour ago for POLITICO shows Brown ahead by 9 points and the bottom dropping out from under Coakley. The issue now may not be whether Brown takes the day but how humiliating the margin will be.Judging from the funereal atmosphere evident on MSNBC’s “Hardball” tonight, it’s going to be bad for Chris Matthews and friends.

On RCP the margin is now seven of eight polls showing Brown ahead. The polls taken yesterday and today AFTER Obama’s rescue mission are worse for Coakley than those taken before. Obama may have hurt her more than helped.

UPDATE #3: Just for fun: John Ratzenberger, who played Cliff Claven on the TV Series “Cheers”, let loose this gem at the Brown rally yesterday…

This isn’t the Democratic party of our fathers and grandfathers. This is the party of Woodstock hippies. I was at Woodstock — I built the stage. And when everything fell apart, and people were fighting for peanut-butter sandwiches, it was the National Guard who came in and saved the same people who were protesting them. So when Hillary Clinton a few years ago wanted to build a Woodstock memorial, I said it should be a statue of a National Guardsman feeding a crying hippie.