..it’s just pocket change. After all the wrangling and posturing, the man who really holds the key to our financial future is Ben Bernanke. “So, at a time where the government has demonstrated a complete lack of will over $38 billion, we are left in the hands of Ben to determine short term rates, influence [...]
“What I love about New Hampshire and what we have in common is our extreme love for liberty,” the potential GOP presidential candidate said. “You’re the state where the shot was heard around the world in Lexington and Concord. And you put a marker in the ground and paid with the blood of your ancestors [...]
Remember that little investment that the Oracle of Omaha made in Goldman Sachs in 2008 to help ally the fear that the entire banking industry was collapsing? 5 billion dollars of perpetual reserved shares.
But Mr. Buffett’s investment came with a heavy cost, as many lifelines do: 10 percent annual dividend payments. That comes out to more than $1 billion thus far — or more than $1.3 million a day.
You know what they say, it takes money to make money.
IBM has bragged to the media that Watson’s question-answering skills are good for more than annoying Alex Trebek. The company sees a future in which fields like medical diagnosis, business analytics, and tech support are automated by question-answering software like Watson. Just as factory jobs were eliminated in the 20th century by new assembly-line robots, Brad and I were the first knowledge-industry workers put out of work by the new generation of “thinking” machines. “Quiz show contestant” may be the first job made redundant by Watson, but I’m sure it won’t be the last.
Seinfeld ran for nine seasons on NBC and became famous as a “show about nothing.” Basically, the show allows viewers to follow the antics of Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer as they move through their daily lives, often encountering interesting people or dealing with special circumstances.
It is the simplicity of Seinfeld that makes it so appropriate for use in economics courses. Using these clips (as well as clips from other television shows or movies) makes economic concepts come alive, making them more real for students. Ultimately, students will start seeing economics everywhere – in other TV shows, in popular music, and most importantly, in their own lives.
Who needs Principles of Microeconomics by Mankiw when one only needs to watch Seinfeld to understand the basic theories of economics?
He started the Declaration of Independence in 2000 and worked on it, little by little, over the years until it was near completion. A stroke, though, less than a year ago put the project, and his life, in peril.
Luckily, Kested emerged from his ordeal far better than some others do. He can no longer feel any sensation in one hand, but is able to still use it and still has a strong grip. His speech is slower and he sometimes struggles to find words, but ultimately he’s made a good recovery, he said. After some therapy he was able to resume work on his project, carving the final bits of punctuation and adhering them to the birch background.
He said he hopes his experience inspires others who deal with a similar issue.
“I feel really blessed. I want people to know that you can still do things, that they shouldn’t give up, they should keep on going,” he said.
Not China, not Russia, not North Korea, not Iran, not terrorists…According to Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the “single biggest threat” to American national security is the US national debt, which is either $8.85 trillion (public debt), $13.4 trillion (total national debt), $20 trillion (total debt including GSE debt), or $124 trillion (total debt including unfunded obligations), depending on one’s definition of the word “debt.” And as Zero Hedge has long been warning, the imminent increase in interest rates (sooner or later), will eventually put the country in an untenable funding position. “Tax payers will be paying around $600 billion in interest on the national debt by 2012, the chairman told students and local leaders in Detroit.” The Chairman (the real one, not his pale imitation over at Marriner Eccles) politely forgot to add that the successful rolling of nearly $600 billion in debt per month is likely an even greater threat to national security.
With Helicopter Ben getting everyone prepared for QE2, the amount of debt held by the Federal Reserve is getting ready to skyrocket. And, it looks as if the Treasury is going to be creating plenty more for them to purchase.
We hope it is appreciated promptly enough, that the entity highlighted in red can just as easily become the biggest domestic threat to national security, should the interests it represents, both political and financial, not get their way.
The Internet will run out of Internet addresses in about 1 year’s time, we were told today by John Curran, President and CEO of the American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN). The same thing was also stated recently by Vint Cerf, Google’s Chief Internet Evangelist.
The main reason for the concern? There’s an explosion of data about to happen to the Web – thanks largely to sensor data, smart grids, RFID and other Internet of Things data. Other reasons include the increase in mobile devices connecting to the Internet and the annual growth in user-generated content on the Web.
The money chart, this shows who Goldman’s key derivative counterparties were as of June 2008. While oddly enough AIG is not on this chart (potentially as this is pro forma for the bailout), it shows just what a great web of interconnected synthetic exposure derivatives create. As of this snapshot, Goldman had $20 trillion in notional counterparty exposure. This number has since ballooned. It also shows that the collapse of any individual actor in this maze would very likely result in the collapse of the entire financial system. While we do not know whether the notional depicted is gross or net, we are comfortable that the $2 trillion in Interest Rate Product counterparty exposure between Goldman and JPM and RBS (for example) would be sufficient to blow up either of these parties should the interest rate complex move violently in a direction and amplitude presumed impossible by either firm’s VaR models.
Goldman Sachs is the market. It’s no wonder they don’t report any losing days on their trading desk.
Goldman knows full well just how every single bank and hedge fund is positioned, and can easily make prop trading decision based simply on counterparty exposure (Goldman tracks every single trade inception, transfer and novation with all its counterparties to know up to the minute who owns what). Welcome to completely legal frontrunning.
The fate of health reform has been a focus of debate in living rooms and offices, on TV and online — and on talk radio. And since millions of folks turn to talk radio as a trusted source of news and opinions, we need to make sure OFA supporters are calling in with a pro-reform message.calling in with a pro-reform message.
The Health Care Summit is over, let the calling begin. Can’t wait till reconciliation.
I’m not sure where he’s living, but Lenny Dykstra is back in the investing game. The baseball great who filed for bankruptcy last year and lost both of his homes now has a Web site called Nails Investments.
He is back at it again. After some tough times, Nails is back in the options game.
“Each week we provide our subscribers with Key Option plays designed to make $1000 or more,” the Web site says. For fees ranging from $89 a month (The Single) to $899 a year (The Homerun), you can have access to Dykstra’s forecasts. The Homerun also gives you access to a monthly live conference call—”Speak with and Ask Lenny Questions”—and an autographed baseball.
Back in July I posted a song by the group Phoenix, and thought it may be one of the best albums of the year. Tonight their album, Wolfgang Amadeus Phoenix, was awarded the Grammy for Best Alternative Album. Quality New Music brought to you by Gurus’s Mix.
I guess movie-making is always a form of madness — it has to be, given how huge an undertaking it’s become. But usually it’s the madness of Hollywood power-mongers struggling to turn an incoherent digital rampage made up of branded content into another money spout. To explore the DVD of Moon is to witness another kind of madness at work — the madness of the small science-fiction auteur, and that in turn gives you a greater appreciation for the madness that Sam Rockwell embodies on screen.
What a film. It is too bad it slipped through theaters without much fanfare. It ranks as one of the best Sci-fi movies I’ve seen in a while and certainly ranks as the best of last year for me. The tension running throughout reminds me a lot of the original Alien or perhaps Outland…all for a budget of 5 million dollars. If you haven’t seen it, rent it soon.
Proof that there is a higher power and he hates vicious fun. A Kansas high school decides to prank their girls’ basketball coach en masse.
The idea: He will get up at half-time, be blindfolded, spun around and told if he makes an impossible half-court shot, he wins tickets to the Final Four college basketball tournament.
The wrinkle: The crowd is primed to erupt in cheers when he misses. He’s supposed to pull off the blindfold and feel stupid and ashamed. (Not clear on where to locate the humour here.)
The problem: The coach is a former player at Kansas University, which means he’s pretty damn good
So he makes the shot. Incredible, right? Just wait. There is more. A local tv reporter goes to the same gym to do a follow up story, and while filming a tease for the story manages to do this.
“I can’t remember having a better time in all of my life,” McGwire said during an hour-long interview with the MLB Network’s Bob Costas. “Do you have any idea what it’s like knowing instantly that a ball you hit is going to fly—no, soar—over a fence in a major-league stadium? Well, I do. And it’s f$%king fantastic.”
One day, I would love to see an athlete, or any public figure for that matter, embroiled in a controversy actually answer questions about it in this manner. You know this is what they are really thinking.
Yes, global warming is real. But maybe, just maybe the story you are being sold by the MSM and AGW supporters is not as solid as they would have you believe. Watch this 1st segment of a movie that uses layman’s terms to explain the potential problems with the theories of “The Church of Global Warming”. Click here to watch the remaining 5 segments.
Nearly a third of Detroit’s homes are vacant, and along with the residences, the city’s stately hotels and cultural centers have been abandoned as well, falling into dramatic disrepair, their grand ruins still showing the promises of a once-booming city.
Some Amazing Detroit pictures here. Reminds me of Conclub at the moment.
Every single one of these dots are galaxies. It’s the deepest look into the Universe yet, showing the oldest galaxies ever seen, 600 million years after the Big Bang. When I zoom into this ultra-high definition image, I feel overwhelmed.
SOUTH BEND, IN—Jesus Christ, the Son of God, Savior of All Mankind, and current defensive coordinator at Middle Tennessee State, said Monday that He would not accept Notre Dame’s 3-year, $5.6 million offer to coach the Fighting Irish. “I love Notre Dame and respect their football legacy, but no matter what you’ve accomplished before coaching there, once you’re a Golden Domer, the expectations, frankly, are unrealistic,” said Christ, whose family has been involved with the university since its founding
Either Bob Stoops or Brian Kelly will be named coach of the Irish. Will they be happy knowing they were number 2 and number 3 on the list?
Although I can’t unsee the previous videos posted by the beast, I can try to cover them by watching this one. Incredible energy here live from CBGB’s. Enjoy.
Actually, the poll itself is not flawed, but the local affiliate who aired this segment may need a little help. This screen capture has been going viral on many lefty sites today, including prominent blogs such as that of J. Bradford Delong. … who titled his post “Yes, Fox News Really Is This Bad!”.
Of course, this is an deliberate attempt by Fox News to skew the data. Or perhaps is shows the outright stupidity of the network? LOL Isn’t it obvious from the anchor’s strong delivery and the quality of the graphics (Opinions Dynamic?).
There may have been a better way to display the data (hint: bar chart instead of pie chart), and perhaps a better explanation of just what the numbers represent-
Palin has been mentioned as a possible presidential candidate in 2012, along with a host of other Republicans. Among self-identified Republicans in the survey, Palin gets the highest favorable ratings (70 percent) amid a group of other possible contenders for the GOP nomination, including Mike Huckabee (63 percent), Mitt Romney (60 percent) and Newt Gingrich (58 percent).
Britain’s Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, suffered a data breach in recent days when a hacker apparently broke into their system and made away with thousands of emails and documents. The stolen data was then posted to a Russian server and has quickly made the rounds among climate skeptics. The documents within the archive, if proven to be authentic, would at best be embarrassing for many prominent climate researchers and at worst, damning.
The contents of the emails and data seem to be authentic, but I will withhold judgement until verified.
The emails contain an array of discussions including what appear to be concerted efforts to withhold data. Just as troubling is conversations that allude to potentially manipulating climate data to “hide the decline” of temperatures seen in the last decade.
Will be checking for further confirmation. If true, this will blow a hole right through the climate change consortium.
Update: The story is gaining more traction as the day progresses. It has been picked up by the New York Times along with some other major publications. And as always, Anthony at wattsupwiththat.com has a pretty good read on one of the major issues coming to light.
When smoothing these time series, the Team had a problem: actual reconstructions “diverge” from the instrumental series in the last part of 20th century. For instance, in the original hockey stick (ending 1980) the last 30-40 years of data points slightly downwards. In order to smooth those time series one needs to “pad” the series beyond the end time, and no matter what method one uses, this leads to a smoothed graph pointing downwards in the end whereas the smoothed instrumental series is pointing upwards — a divergence. So Mann’s solution was to use the instrumental record for padding, which changes the smoothed series to point upwards as clearly seen in UC’s figure (violet original, green without “Mike’s Nature trick”).
The more interesting question, then, is what would be the ranking were these historical hurricanes to recur today. Using current property exposures, the only recent storm to break the top ten is Hurricane Katrina. First on the list is a hurricane unknown to many: the 1926 Miami hurricane (hurricanes were not systematically named until 1953). The 1926 Category 4 storm made a direct hit on Miami, but at the time, Dade and Broward counties had a combined population estimated at roughly 135,000. Today, that storm would likely result in insured losses exceeding $100 billion.
That’s right. Only two of the top 10 most expensive (in insurance loss) hurricanes of the past 100 years have occurred in the past 10 years. The number and intensity of super hurricanes is increasing, right? Al, aren’t they?
*Modeled loss to property, contents, and business interruption and additional living expenses for residential, mobile home, commercial, and auto exposures as of December 31, 2008. Losses include demand surge.
Did you hear about the guy who drove his Bugatti into the water a few days ago. Here is a vid shot by some kids driving on a road parallel to the Bugatti driver.
The late ’70s, when punk exploded and disco imploded, were tumultuous years for the music industry. A time bomb embedded in legislation from that era, the U.S. Copyright Act of 1976, could bring another round of tumult to the business, due to provisions that allow authors or their heirs to terminate copyright grants — or at the very least renegotiate much sweeter deals by threatening to do so.
At a time when record labels and, to a lesser extent, music publishers, find themselves in the midst of an unprecedented contraction, the last thing they need is to start losing valuable copyrights to ’50s, ’60s, ’70s and ’80s music, much of which still sells as well or better than more recently released fare. Nonetheless, the wheels are already in motion.
I for one am looking forward toward this move away from studio control. Up until the past few years, artists have only been able to release (for the most part) tracks that were deemed album appropriate by the studios who controlled distribution. Now with the potential for decentralization of this process, I envision not only being able to purchase released tracks, but what must be an incredible unreleased catalog. Artists will be able to be able to position these undiscovered tracks along with their hits, creating a channel for these yet undiscovered tunes.
Bring on the new media!
The Copyright Act includes two sets of rules for how this works. If an artist or author sold a copyright before 1978 (Section 304), they or their heirs can take it back 56 years later. If the artist or author sold the copyright during or after 1978 (Section 203), they can terminate that grant after 35 years. Assuming all the proper paperwork gets done in time, record labels could lose sound recording copyrights they bought in 1978 starting in 2013, 1979 in 2014, and so on. For 1953-and-earlier music, grants can already be terminated.
The Eagles plan to file grant termination notices by the end of the year, according to Law.com. “It’s going to happen,” said Eveline. “Just think of what the Eagles are doing when they get back their whole catalog. They don’t need a record company now…. You’ll be able to go to Eagles.com (currently under construction) and get all their songs. They’re going to do it; it’s coming up.”
Many rock purists and music snobs (myself included) often lament the quality of most modern pop/rock music. “Music these days is so trite and derivative,” they say. “It’s just been downhill since the 60’s and 70’s. Those were the days.”
A few years ago, Rolling Stone magazine added fuel to the music snobbery fire with its “500 Greatest Songs of All Time” list. Anyone casually paging through the list would notice that the bulk of the list was comprised of songs from the 60’s and 70’s, just like the music snobs always say.
I, however, wasn’t content with the casual analysis. So I punched the list into Excel, crunched some numbers, and found an interesting parallel between the decline of rock music quality and, of all things, the decline in US oil discovery and production:
So the question is…If we start drilling offshore and in Alaska, will the quality of rock music improve?
Great video from my friends at Nice Fish Films, who documented a day at the recent Blogworld expo in Las Vegas. As bloggers, we are at the forefront of this change and should adopt many of these strategies to promote and circulate our ideas. Chris Brogan, author of the great book Trust Agents refers to social media as “the new dial tone”.
“Who we thought were disrupters are now becoming mainstream”
It is no secret that I love live music. Today I was scanning youtube for some live music when I ran across the eaglerocktv channel, which is full of classic live performance videos from many genres. A set that really stood out for me was from ZZ Top and their 1980 release Double Down Live. Notice that this is the *real* ZZ, not just the animatronic version touring today.
Mapping Main Street is a collaborative documentary media project that creates a new map of the country through stories, photos and videos recorded on actual Main Streets. The goal is to document all of the more than 10,000 streets named Main in the United States. We invite you to capture the stories and images of the country today. Go out, look around, talk to people and contribute to this re-mapping of the United States at mappingmainstreet.org
Click on the mappingmainstreet link to see a slideshow of pictures taken on Main Street in my hometown of Lewistown, MT. While watching the slides, listen to JCM seeing about small towns.
Quarterback Nick Montana is the son of Joe Montana, who led the San Francisco 49ers to four Super Bowlvictories and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2000. His backup is Trevor Gretzky, whose father, Wayne, won four Stanley Cups and proceeded directly to the Hockey Hall of Fame after retiring as the N.H.L.’s career leading scorer.
One of Nick Montana’s favorite receivers is Trey Smith, a junior who is developing into a Division I prospect, Redell said. Trey’s father is the actor Will Smith, who has cleared his schedule so he can attend every game.
There is a new grassroots campaign underway…Barack for Heisman. Through the ESPN promotion sponsored by Nissan, you can cast a vote for the Heisman trophy.
As the presenting sponsor for the Heisman Trophy, Nissan has the unique privilege of casting one official vote for the winner of the Heisman Trophy. This Nissan vote represents you, the college football fan, and we invite you to make your voice heard.
Where are the headlines? Where are the press releases? Where is all the attention?
The ice melt across during the Antarctic summer (October-January) of 2008-2009 wasthe lowest ever recorded in the satellite history.
Haven’t seen this in the MSM yet?
But this time around, nothing, nada, zippo from NASA when their ice melt go-to guy Marco Tedesco reports that Antarctica has set a record for the lack of surface ice melt (even more interestingly coming on the heels of a near-record low ice-melt year lastsummer).
So, seriously, NASA, what gives? If ice melt is an important enough topic to warrant annual updates of the goings-on across Greenland, it is not important enough to elucidate the history and recent behavior across Antarctica?
I’m with Professor Roger Pielke Jr. on this one. Is a “planned recession” really a selling point?
At the moment the UK is committed to cutting greenhouse gases by a third by 2020.
However a new report from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research said these targets are inadequate to keep global warming below two degrees C above pre-industrial levels.
The report says the only way to avoid going beyond the dangerous tipping point is to double the target to 70 per cent by 2020.
This would mean reducing the size of the economy through a “planned recession”.
Kevin Anderson, director of the research body, said the building of new airports, petrol cars and dirty coal-fired power stations will have to be halted in the UK until new technology provides an alternative to burning fossil fuels.
“To meet [Government] targets of not exceeding two degrees C, there would have to be a moratorium on airport expansion, stringent measures on the type of vehicle being used and a rapid transition to low carbon technology,” he said.
Prof Anderson also said individuals will have to consume less.
The Federal Trade Commission has just released a ruling (PDF) that requires bloggers to disclose anything–and I mean anything–they receive as a result of their blogging. Free review copies of books. Trips to oil rigs. Payments. T-shirts. Whatever it is, you better disclose it, or you get slapped with a fine of $11,000 per infraction.
In other words, the government is now putting all web sites, professional or personal, under its thumb for failing to disclose everything they receive from any source. And what are the guidelines for disclosure? Why, none at all. So, assuming you receive a free copy of a book–even if you don’t review it–you must disclose that you received it. How do you disclose it? I dunno. How do you you know if your disclosure is sufficient? I dunno. The FTC, you see, will make those decisions on a “case-by-case” basis.
Fess up lady and fellas. What freebies have you received for your blogging here on the Club?
The graph above shows what happens to the “Hockey Stick” after additional tree ring data, recently released (after a long and protracted fight over data access) is added to the analysis of Hadley’s archived tree ring data in Yamal, Russia.
All of the sudden, it isn’t the “hottest period in 2000 years” anymore.
Really. You mean that cherry picking of data may have been occurring? I am *shocked*. Combined with a convenient loss of data, one might think that the whole global warming theory may be on shaky ground.
The legislation being prepared by Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, who heads the Senate Banking Committee, would also differ from the Obama plan by diminishing the role of the Federal Reserve as a systemwide overseer.
Mr. Dodd’s plan is intended to be the starting point for the Senate as it redraws the financial landscape in response to the market crisis.
For consumers, banks and the markets, Mr. Dodd’s bill is expected to take on the same central role in the debate as Senator Max Baucus’s recent bill is to remaking the health care system.
“We clearly need to put in place an architecture that restores confidence and makes people feel that when they engage in financial activities, from making a bank deposit to buying insurance or investing in stock, that they can have confidence in the system,” Mr. Dodd said in an interview on Friday. “On the other side of this, I don’t want to strangle business.”
“It’s one year ago today I could see that the philosophical issues of those who lead us isn’t in lock step with those who put them there and probably that will change,” Santelli added.
That provoked CNBC “Squawk Box” co-host Carl Quintanilla to ask Santelli if he participated inthe Sept. 12 march in Washington, D.C. Santelli said claimed ignorance, since they were ignored by the media in his estimation.
“What demonstrations? I watched network news, I didn’t see any,” Santelli said. “What demonstrations are you talking about?”
I love those Santelli rants. Some members of the conservative media are picking up on his observation that the MSM did a wonderful job in downplaying the march in D.C. on 9/12. But the more important point may be here:
“What I said is that most of what they did is the same thing as papering up a situation in the darkest of times, where they’re going to claim that the credit crisis is fixed and over, as the current administration does many times,”
He goes on to point out that even after all the money was thrown at the financial system, no one really knows just how many toxic derivatives are still outstanding. One year later, have things really improved, or have we just delayed the inevitable?
Curt Schilling to run for Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat? Looks like he is taking the possibility very seriously.
A run for the Senate is a massive undertaking, both personally and financially. I’m not even close to a Rhodes Scholar or Ivy League graduate, but I also know I’m watching many people with those exact credentials run this state, and this country, into the ground. You don’t need either to serve the people of the commonwealth, what you need is an unbridled and unattached passion to change peoples lives for the better. You need to not be beholden to all of those groups that offer the ‘we pay now, you pay later’ handout.
I have no idea if I’ll even do this, but if by some slim chance I do it won’t be a joke, and it won’t be for laughs. These are deadly serious times at home and abroad and this country absolutely has to elect public servants who don’t head to Washington with an “Out of sight out of mind” approach to us living back home.
While the ” Too big to fail” banks continue to get even bigger, the small banks keep falling by the wayside. Some are predicting as many as 500 more small and regional banks will fail before the end of next year. While this is just a natural boom/bust business cycle, aren’t we just setting ourselves up for the next big bubble. If there is one area in which the financial services industry excels, it is in the ability to manipulate the public’s short term memory and appeal to our greed.
“The first wave of the big banks were the securitizations,” he said. “The regional banks are the ones now going down. They mostly didn’t have much in the way of securitization but they all have construction loans, they have development loans, they all have loans on little shopping centers and they’ve got that kind of portfolio very heavily.”
Regarded as perhaps the finest piece of sportswriting on record, the furious saga of Teddy Ballgame — from boy to man and near death — is an unmatchable remembrance for an American icon. And now it is available in its entirety for the first time online. Read more:
So, the Dodgers pick up Jim Thome and the Rockies get 50 year old 37 year old Jose Contreras for the stretch run. Granted, the Rockies are getting his services for basically nothing (though they do give up a pretty good Triple A prospect in Brandon Hynick), but does an aging old pitcher with a 5-13 record this season really help shore up the rotation?
How foolish was Howard Dean’s admission that the Democrats lack the testicular fortitude to offer tort reform as part of ObamaCare? Every opponent of ObamaCare now has a handy sound bite to press the demand for tort reform as a show-stopper — and clearly paint the Democratic Party as a mouthpiece for trial lawyers. Charles Krauthammer used the clip to damn Dean and the Democrats with the faint praise of Dean’s “truth”, as Townhall’s Greg Hengler catches:”
The Constitution Club presents an array of perspectives on society, politics, and culture that is always ahead of the curve. We are dedicated to the cause of liberty and exposing the failed policies and hypocrisy of the Left. The work of our writers has been referenced by Instapundit.com, Fox Nation, the G. Gordon Liddy program, and the Rush Limbaugh show as well as numerous other media and online outlets. Visit us daily for commentary that will inflame, inform, and enlighten.
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