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 Maybe Mr. Bernanke should have tried dropping something else out of the helicopter.

An event like this may have had more of an effect on the recent credit crisis than the rate drop by the Fed this week, at least according to Satyajit Das who just may be the world’s foremost credit derivatives expert.  Using the dreaded baseball analogy, Mr. Das thinks we may just be listening to the national anthem at this point with all 9 innings of the game ahead of us…ultimately leading to a worldwide recession and bear market. 

The liquidity factory was self-perpetuating and seemingly unstoppable. As assets bought with borrowed money rose in value, players could borrow more money against them, and it thus seemed logical to borrow even more to increase returns. Bankers figured out how to strip money out of existing assets to do so, much as a homeowner might strip equity from his house to buy another house.

These triple-borrowed assets were then in turn increasingly used as collateral for commercial paper — the short-term borrowings of banks and corporations — which was purchased by supposedly low-risk money market funds. According to Das’ figures, up to 53% of the $2.2 trillion of commercial paper in the U.S. market is now asset-backed, with about 50% of that in mortgages. When you add it all up, according to Das’ research, a single dollar of “real” capital supports $20 to $30 of loans. This spiral of borrowing on an increasingly thin base of real assets, writ large and in nearly infinite variety, ultimately created a world in which derivatives outstanding earlier this year stood at $485 trillion — or eight times total global gross domestic product of $60 trillion. Money quote…

While you might think that the U.S. Federal Reserve can help prevent disaster by lowering interest rates dramatically, as it did Wednesday, the evidence is not at all clear.

The problem, after all, is not the amount of money in the system but the fact that buyers are in the process of rejecting the entire new risk-transfer model and its associated leverage and counterparty risks.

Lower rates will not help that. “At best,” Das says, “they help smooth the transition.”